Mesoscale Discussion 1347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

   Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292349Z - 300115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may be materializing east of Tornado
   Watch 419 as an MCS is organizing in extreme western NE. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the next hour or so if the MCS
   continues to intensify.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells across eastern WY have
   recently aggregated into a loosely organized MCS across the NE
   Panhandle. 7+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates precede this newly
   developed MCS, and are overspreading surface dewpoints in the mid to
   upper 50s, yielding over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. The buoyancy
   coincides with well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, derived
   primarily from elongated, nearly straight hodographs (based on RAP
   forecast soundings). While the aforementioned CAPE/deep-shear
   parameter space would favor continued MCS organization and
   intensification, low-level shear is relatively weak, raising
   questions regarding how prolific the accompanying severe wind threat
   will become. Nonetheless, severe gusts could become common enough to
   warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, which may be needed in
   the next few hours pending continued MCS intensification.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/29/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42950278 42920145 42620035 42059979 41539966 41310007
               41160097 41150178 41180217 41270255 42950278