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Mesoscale Discussion 1350
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

   Areas affected...portions of western into central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

   Valid 300153Z - 300330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe winds will remain a concern across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 421, especially in the path of a bow-echo MCS for
   the next few hours. Large hail may also accompany a preceding
   supercell for the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A mature MCS has materialized across western NE, and
   continues to accelerate eastward. The MCS has taken on bow-echo
   characteristics, with both MRMS mosaic radar data showing a book-end
   vortex to the north of the bow apex, with cross-sections of KLNX
   radar data revealing strong, descending inbound velocities behind
   the apex, indicative of a rear-inflow jet. As such, severe wind
   gusts may accompany this MCS. However, lower-level shear below 5 km
   (and especially in the surface-3 km layer) remains weak across
   western into central NE, so confidence in a long-lasting, robust
   severe-wind threat is not overly high. Nonetheless, at least a few
   severe gusts should remain possible into tonight. Furthermore,
   severe hail (perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter) remains
   possible with a discrete supercell ahead of the bow echo, until this
   storm is absorbed into the leading line. It is also possible that
   the merging of the bow echo and supercell may briefly augment the
   severe wind threat.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41710264 42680219 42930135 42969984 42669928 41799920
               41189929 40880013 40940149 41110234 41710264 

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