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Mesoscale Discussion 2151
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern NM into parts of west TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152010Z - 152215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected through late afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is
   possible, though timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed near/east of the
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains in northeast NM. Storm coverage is
   expected to increase through late afternoon across northeast NM and
   eventually into east-central NM, as a midlevel shortwave near the
   Four Corners region continues to impinge upon a gradually
   destabilizing environment. Modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000
   J/kg) and effective shear of around 30 kt are marginally sufficient
   for a few organized storms through the afternoon across northeast
   NM, with isolated hail and strong winds possible. 

   Some increase in deep-layer shear is possible with time late this
   afternoon into the evening, as midlevel westerly flow gradually
   increases in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. This may
   allow for eventual development of a supercell or two, with any
   right-moving cells tending to propagate southeastward into a
   somewhat more unstable environment. Should this evolution occur, an
   increase in the threat for hail and localized severe gusts will be
   possible by early evening. Watch issuance is possible if confidence
   increases in the development of multiple supercells, though the
   onset of a greater severe threat and timing of any watch issuance
   remain somewhat uncertain.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 09/15/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35860533 36460478 36490389 36020302 35170256 35030250
               33990253 32620268 32830426 32920512 33410517 34400534
               34830531 35030531 35360534 35860533 

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