Mesoscale Discussion 2153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023
Areas affected...east central/southeast New Mexico and the Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684...
Valid 160356Z - 160600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development may persist, and
pose a continuing risk for occasional severe hail and locally strong
wind gusts, while spreading southward across the Texas South Plains
and adjacent portions of eastern New Mexico through 1-3 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...In general, there has been little change to convective
trends along the southward advancing front to the lee of the
southern Rockies during the past couple of hours. The corridor of
weak frontogenetic forcing is still providing the primary focus for
strong thunderstorm development, which remains largely discrete and
scattered in nature while propagating south-southeastward.
With warm advection above the frontal zone remaining weak, and the
modest pre-frontal boundary-layer instability beginning to wane,
potential for appreciable upscale convective growth and organization
appears low, as the cold front advances toward the Trans-Pecos
region through 06-08Z. However, lingering scattered strong
thunderstorms may continue to occasionally pose a risk for severe
hail and locally strong surface gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34180445 34440367 34240187 33940099 32450064 32310197
32400298 32820434 34180445