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Mesoscale Discussion 2153
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

   Areas affected...east central/southeast New Mexico and the Texas
   South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684...

   Valid 160356Z - 160600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development may persist, and
   pose a continuing risk for occasional severe hail and locally strong
   wind gusts, while spreading southward across the Texas South Plains
   and adjacent portions of eastern New Mexico through 1-3 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...In general, there has been little change to convective
   trends along the southward advancing front to the lee of the
   southern Rockies during the past couple of hours.  The corridor of
   weak frontogenetic forcing is still providing the primary focus for
   strong thunderstorm development, which remains largely discrete and
   scattered in nature while propagating south-southeastward.  

   With warm advection above the frontal zone remaining weak, and the
   modest pre-frontal boundary-layer instability beginning to wane,
   potential for appreciable upscale convective growth and organization
   appears low, as the cold front advances toward the Trans-Pecos
   region through 06-08Z.  However, lingering scattered strong
   thunderstorms may continue to occasionally pose a risk for severe
   hail and locally strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 09/16/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34180445 34440367 34240187 33940099 32450064 32310197
               32400298 32820434 34180445 

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