Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 2162
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 2162 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 2162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 192036Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
   next 2-3 hours. Very large hail and strong wind gusts will be
   possible with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
   this afternoon or early evening, but timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
   the upper 80s/low 90s across the OK/TX Panhandles into western
   OK/northwest TX. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection also has
   maintained dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s while aiding in
   erosion of convective inhibition. Increasing/deepening cumulus is
   evident in visible satellite imagery over the TX Panhandle/South
   Plains vicinity, suggesting subtle large-scale ascent is spreading
   east across the region. Additional cumulus development beneath
   weakening cap has also been noted over western north TX.

   A zone of moderate instability (to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
   overlapping with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
   support organized convection, with a mix of supercells and clusters
   anticipated. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
   hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km. This wind
   profile, coupled with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggest very
   large hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible,
   even if storms are somewhat elevated due to lingering low-level
   inhibition (which increases with eastward extent and also with time
   into the evening). Isolated strong gusts also will be possible. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed late this afternoon
   or early evening, but given subtle forcing mechanisms and lingering
   inhibition, timing is a bit uncertain.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/19/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34540042 35010001 35249892 35429791 35369760 35089744
               34899753 34489768 33559807 33089865 32909937 33080035
               33180093 33480119 33530119 34540042 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: September 19, 2023
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities