Mesoscale Discussion 2162
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 192036Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
   next 2-3 hours. Very large hail and strong wind gusts will be
   possible with these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
   this afternoon or early evening, but timing is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures to warm into
   the upper 80s/low 90s across the OK/TX Panhandles into western
   OK/northwest TX. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection also has
   maintained dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s while aiding in
   erosion of convective inhibition. Increasing/deepening cumulus is
   evident in visible satellite imagery over the TX Panhandle/South
   Plains vicinity, suggesting subtle large-scale ascent is spreading
   east across the region. Additional cumulus development beneath
   weakening cap has also been noted over western north TX.

   A zone of moderate instability (to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
   overlapping with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
   support organized convection, with a mix of supercells and clusters
   anticipated. Forecast soundings show enlarged, curved low-level
   hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km. This wind
   profile, coupled with midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggest very
   large hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) will be possible,
   even if storms are somewhat elevated due to lingering low-level
   inhibition (which increases with eastward extent and also with time
   into the evening). Isolated strong gusts also will be possible. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed late this afternoon
   or early evening, but given subtle forcing mechanisms and lingering
   inhibition, timing is a bit uncertain.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/19/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34540042 35010001 35249892 35429791 35369760 35089744
               34899753 34489768 33559807 33089865 32909937 33080035
               33180093 33480119 33530119 34540042