Mesoscale Discussion 2163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...north-central Texas.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

   Valid 192220Z - 192345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large
   hail threat this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day
   elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas.
   Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over
   the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in
   a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level
   northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of
   effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of
   large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn
   right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes,
   portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by
   large to very large hail this evening. 

   If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or
   strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33649755 33609688 33189611 32739589 32469641 32599703
               32869743 33099767 33269770 33649755