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Mesoscale Discussion 2164
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2164
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas and western Oklahoma.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...

   Valid 192255Z - 200030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686

   SUMMARY...Increasing coverage and intensity of severe thunderstorms
   is expected through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Showers which developed across the Texas Panhandle have
   intensified into supercells over the last hour as they moved into
   increasing instability (1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 40 to
   45 knots per FDR VWP will continue to maintain the supercell threat
   through the evening. The long, relatively straight hodographs
   supports splitting supercells, the first of which has already
   occurred along the Texas/Oklahoma border east of Childress. Given
   moderate instability to the north of these ongoing storms, there may
   sufficient instability to support longer lived left-moving
   supercells capable of large to very large hail, particularly across
   southwest Oklahoma.

   ..Bentley.. 09/19/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32900070 33680061 34800021 35779936 36029885 36059816
               35919752 34969739 33669768 32809812 32579908 32900070 

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