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Mesoscale Discussion 2166
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200127Z - 200300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple ongoing supercells/supercell clusters in watch
   686 will move east of the watch in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
   downstream watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells have produced hail (some 2+ inch)
   within watch 686. Some of these storms have congealed into supercell
   clusters with a few discrete storms remaining. These storms are
   expected to move east of watch 686 within the next 1 to 2 hours. The
   OUN/DFW 00Z RAOB shows a very favorable environment with 1500 to
   2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 40 to 50 knots. Cooling
   surface temperatures has led to some increasing inhibition, however,
   the 00Z OUN RAOB still shows around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
   Therefore, given mature supercells and ongoing strong mesocyclones,
   expect them to persist into the late evening and potentially the
   early overnight hours. A watch may be needed downstream to cover
   this threat.

   ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/20/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36179737 36289666 36279595 36169520 35479506 34249523
               33219571 32599661 32509725 32509791 32519820 32619848
               32899848 33499818 34009768 34409740 35099733 35439736

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