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Mesoscale Discussion 2167
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

   Areas of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200416Z - 200615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A lingering isolated supercell continues to pose a risk
   for severe hail, but still appears likely to steadily, if not more
   rapidly, weaken as it moves southeast of Stephenville, toward the
   Temple vicinity, through 1-2 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell propagating across the
   Stephenville vicinity has begun to weaken, but radar data, including
   the MRMS Mesh, suggests that it is still producing severe hail as it
   moves south-southeastward around 30 kt.  This cell appears focused
   within the exit region of a strong northwesterly high-level jet (80+
   kt around 300 mb), where storm-scale dynamic forcing supported by
   strong deep-layer shear likely has slowed storm dissipation. 
   Activity has been moving into an environment characterized by warmer
   mid-levels with progressively weaker mid-level lapse rates and lower
   precipitable water.  This appears to result in a drop off in CAPE
   from around 1000 J/kg to around 500 J/kg south of Stephenville into
   the Temple vicinity, which probably will result in at least a
   continued gradual weakening of the cell during the next couple of

   ..Kerr/Bunting.. 09/20/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32449815 31799739 31169734 31109799 32189849 32449815 

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