Mesoscale Discussion 0023
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0807 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

   Areas affected...southwestern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 090207Z - 090300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes may
   increase this evening over the eastern fringe of WW1 as the QLCS has
   shown increased organization.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, observational data has shown an
   increase in organization of the QLCS over parts of southwestern LA.
   Increasing lightning flash rates and echo top heights indicate more
   robust convection has become established along the line as deeper
   surface moisture (upper 60s F surface dewpoints) has moved onshore.
   This trend should continue as low-level mass response increases
   ahead of the main upper trough as evidenced by the increasingly
   strong 1-2km flow from New Orleans TDWR VWP. With strong low-level
   shear (0-1km 400+ m2/s2) and moderate buoyancy in place, a more
   organized QLCS will likely be capable of damaging gusts and line
   embedded tornadoes this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 01/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29769295 30529238 30989204 31069183 30989170 30789165
               30489158 30129145 29959135 29729123 29449130 29369152
               29339169 29369227 29419274 29449303 29769295