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Mesoscale Discussion 660
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0660
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...Central into northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...189...190...

   Valid 062253Z - 070030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 189, 190 continues.

   SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat will likely occur as the
   low-level jet increases in eastern Kansas this evening. The
   magnitude of this threat will be conditional on maintaining at least
   quasi-discrete storms. QLCS tornadoes will still be possible within
   any linear segments.

   DISCUSSION...Winds aloft have remained backed enough to keep storms
   in central Kansas quasi-discrete. Very-large hail has been the
   primary threat with these storms thus far (reports of 2.5-3 in.).
   Regional VAD profiles show the low-level jet at 45-50 kts currently.
   The jet should intensify this evening, especially within eastern
   Kansas. The primary question is whether storms will remain discrete
   beyond 00Z. Continued mid-level height falls this evening could be
   enough to increase convective coverage such that a more linear mode
   develops. The greatest threat for tornadoes, especially strong
   tornadoes, will depend on maintaining discrete storms. Given the
   strength of the low-level jet, it is possible that some discrete
   storms could develop ahead of this line due to warm advection. Even
   with a more linear mode, however, severe wind gusts and QLCS
   tornadoes would still be possible.

   ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38939828 39499769 39779613 39509564 38749524 38309556
               37799716 37709857 38939828 

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