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Mesoscale Discussion 776
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Coastal Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140434Z - 140630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado,
   with convection early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...MCS that developed over the lower Sabine River Valley
   has matured into a larger complex as it propagates along the central
   Gulf Coast. Northern edge of this MCS is gradually weakening as it
   encounters less buoyant air mass, and the most robust updrafts are
   now focusing near/just off the AL Coast into the northern Gulf
   Basin. Old outflow boundary is currently draped from near
   CTY-AAF-south of PNS. Surface dew points/buoyancy are notably less
   north of the wind shift. It's not clear this boundary will advance
   north over the next few hours so the primary risk for strong/severe
   convection will likely focus along/south of this boundary where dew
   points are in the 70s. Low risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a
   brief tornado, will be noted along the leading edge of this
   progressive MCS.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30348675 30418459 30038415 29548459 29708659 30348675 

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