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Mesoscale Discussion 808
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0808
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...Upper TX Coast...Southern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 249...

   Valid 170049Z - 170245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 249 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across the remaining
   southeastern portions of ww249 this evening. Damaging winds, and
   perhaps a tornado or two, remain the primary risks.

   DISCUSSION...Large MCS has matured over northern LA/upper TX Coast
   and is propagating downstream toward the lower MS Valley. Latest
   radar data suggests an MCV may be forming within the expansive
   precip shield over the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature is
   moving east and may contribute to the overall organization of the
   cluster as it spreads across southern LA. LLJ is forecast to
   strengthen across southern LA over the next few hours and latest VAD
   from LCH supports this with 0-3km SRH in excess of 550 m2/s2. Strong
   low-level warm advection favors a well-organized MCS advancing east
   and damaging winds remain the greatest risk along the surging
   bow-like structures. Additionally, some tornado risk continues with
   embedded supercells along the QLCS.

   ..Darrow.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29359506 30449379 31009194 30309133 29849277 28889487

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