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Mesoscale Discussion 1191
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1191
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

   Areas affected...central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

   Valid 072043Z - 072245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395

   SUMMARY...Discrete ongoing supercell development is likely to
   persist through 5-7 PM CDT, with the risk for large hail in excess
   of 2 inches in diameter, perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes, then
   strong to severe wind gusts with at least one storm approaching the
   Broken Bow vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms continue to develop,
   including one increasingly prominent supercell now turning
   southeastward, to the southeast and south of Thedford.  This cell
   appears most likely to maintain inflow of moist boundary-layer air
   characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, and substantive
   further intensification appears likely as it propagates
   southeastward toward the Broken Bow vicinity through 22-00Z.  This
   may be aided by strengthening deep-layer shear associated with a
   vigorous upstream mid-level jet streak digging east-southeast of the
   Nebraska Panhandle.  The potential for large, damaging hail seems
   likely to continue to increase.  Tornado potential is more unclear,
   given sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads.  But a
   couple of brief tornadoes may be possible, before strong to severe
   surface gusts become a more prominent threat with strengthening
   outflow by early evening.

   ..Kerr.. 06/07/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41950073 42229980 41219871 40829937 40809992 41430063

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