Mesoscale Discussion 1793
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

   Areas affected...northwest/north-central OK and extreme south KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020551Z - 020745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe gusts of 45-60 mph along with
   small hail will be possible with a slow east-southeastward-moving
   cluster along the northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas border area.

   DISCUSSION...Outflow mergers yielded a rather deep convective
   cluster with very cold IR cloud top temperatures. While the strength
   of the wind profile is modest with 20-25 kt mid-level
   north-northwesterlies per DDC/VNX VWP data, a ribbon of weak
   easterly low-level flow is situated north of the west/east-oriented
   portion of the surface front about 3 counties deep into OK. This is
   aiding in effective bulk shear enhancement, and may support loose
   organization in this cluster and downstream cells forming within a
   zone of isentropic ascent. Buffalo, OK, mesonet measured a 56-mph
   gust at 0530Z. Along the western periphery of the moderate buoyancy
   plume across northern OK to the MO/AR border area, additional strong
   to marginally severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours
   before convection likely wanes towards dawn.

   ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37179922 37119805 36709716 36539673 36279670 35949717
               35929824 35869949 36389969 36739972 37179922