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Mesoscale Discussion 2
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0002
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0844 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Oklahoma...southeast
   Kansas...southwest into central Missouri

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 010244Z - 010845Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain potential is expected to increase over the
   next several hours across portions of northeast OK into central MO.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation has remained relatively light thus far
   across portions of far northeast OK into central MO given the
   presence of a dry 850-700 mb layer (per 00Z SGF observed sounding).
   However, this dry layer, along with freezing/near-freezing surface
   temperatures will encourage evaporative cooling with the onset of
   heavier precipitation advecting from the south, making freezing at
   the surface more likely. A few METAR observations have indicated
   that light ice accumulations are already occurring along the MO/AR
   border, as wet bulb surface temperatures have already begun to drop
   below freezing in several locales. Low-level moisture/warm-air
   advection and associated heavier precipitation is expected across
   northeast OK/southeast KS into MO later this evening as a low-level
   warm conveyer belt pivots to the north with a slow moving occluding
   upper low in TX. As such, the later evening heavier precipitation
   may reach the surface to efficiently freeze, with up to 0.03-0.06
   in/3 hr rates possible in spots, especially in the 06-09Z period, as
   suggested by the 12Z HREF, the last few runs of the HRRR, and by 01Z
   RAP forecast soundings.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 01/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36209549 36729557 37419514 38329347 38599201 38729129
               38599083 38199044 37809037 37489065 37129131 36829196
               36479291 36259470 36209549 

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Page last modified: January 01, 2021
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