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Mesoscale Discussion 2
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0002
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0440 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2020

   Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031040Z - 031315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue to increase through the morning hours,
   with isolated severe wind gusts the most probable threat from
   southern Alabama into central Georgia. While a watch is unlikely in
   the short-term, trends are being monitored for any increase in
   intensity later this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front progressing east
   from far southeast LA to the MS coast and into south-central AL.
   Meanwhile, a tight temperature gradient exists near a warm front
   from western into central GA.

   Ahead of the cold front, relatively warm temperatures in the lower
   70s F exist, along with dewpoints around 70 F especially from
   southern AL to the Gulf Coast. GPS water vapor measurements over the
   past several hours show a substantial increase in overall PWAT, with
   maximum values approaching 1.70 inches. 

   Showers have deepened over southern AL recently as the more robust
   moisture interacts with the front. Already, small line segments have
   developed, as deep-layer shear vectors are parallel to the front. 

   Lapse rates aloft per forecast soundings earlier indicated a
   subsidence inversion, which was hampering storm growth. However, the
   moist boundary layer continues to deepen, allowing for deeper
   convection (with increasing lightning trends). A general
   strengthening is possible with some of these storms this morning, 
   more so if pockets of heating can develop later this morning ahead
   of this activity.

   A few severe wind gusts are possible, especially with any
   semi-organized small-scale bows. Some of these elements may
   strengthen as they interact with the warm front over GA where lift
   and low-level SRH will be maximized. A brief tornado is possible,
   although gusty winds are most likely.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 01/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30298850 30858762 31448701 32008651 32728599 33598559
               34028533 34098502 33708427 33038385 32318397 31658468
               31128542 30588611 30318681 30188757 30108820 30168846
               30298850 

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Page last modified: January 03, 2020
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