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Mesoscale Discussion 10
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0010
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CST Mon Jan 07 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern part of the MN Arrowhead

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 070815Z - 071315Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase overnight to 1-2
   inches per hour across northeast portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead
   region (the North Shore) from southern Lake to southern and eastern
   Cook Counties.  These rates should develop by 3 AM and persist until
   around 7 AM, at which time heavier intensities should begin to
   decrease from the south.

   DISCUSSION...A mean trough will shift east from Plains states into
   this morning.  Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave trough, currently
   located across the Dakotas into western NE per satellite imagery,
   should pivot toward the northeast, reaching north of the
   international border into northwest Ontario by 18Z.  Models remain
   in good agreement suggesting a surface wind shift, which currently
   extended from eastern ND to western IA, will advance east across
   much of the discussion area by late morning.  Strong forcing for
   ascent attendant to the Dakotas trough will maintain height falls to
   sustain the presence of a strong southerly low-level jet translating
   from west-east across the upper Great Lakes and northern Ontario. 
   Surface observations indicated light to moderate snowfall ongoing
   across the MN Arrowhead.  Strong warm advection along the low-level
   jet combined with an onshore upslope component to the surface winds
   will promote favorable conditions for increased snowfall rates, as
   deeper forcing for ascent with the shortwave trough spreads across
   the region.  Given the progressiveness of this storm system, the
   strongest low-level warm advection along the 850-mb jet is expected
   to shift poleward away from the MN North Shore after 14-15Z,
   resulting in a subsequent decrease in snowfall rates.

   ..Peters.. 01/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...

   LAT...LON   47419176 48049047 48018940 47639058 47089169 47419176 

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Page last modified: January 07, 2019
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