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Mesoscale Discussion 14
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0014
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

   Areas affected...south-central and southeast Missouri and into
   adjacent far northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 111637Z - 112230Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation -- including potential for
   three-hour freezing rain accumulation of greater than .05" locally
   -- will continue across the Ozarks area and vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show an expansive area
   of precipitation streaming northeastward across Texas and Oklahoma
   and into Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas.  The precipitation is occurring
   within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of an upper trough
   moving slowly eastward out of the Rockies, and an associated surface
   low analyzed over the Texas Panhandle this morning.

   Temperatures are above freezing across much of the area where
   precipitation is falling -- and should remain above freezing in
   these areas through this afternoon.  The main exception is across
   the Ozarks region of Missouri and eastward across the
   mid-Mississippi Valley.  Here, surface temperatures range from
   roughly 29 to 32 degrees -- with some potential for evaporative
   cooling in the lower troposphere (with surface dewpoints still in
   the low to mid 20s at some sites).

   Light rain -- and local areas of freezing rain -- have been observed
   across portions of the discussion area this morning, along with
   light snow in a few areas.  While the aforementioned evaporative
   cooling at low levels may allow a transition to somewhat more
   widespread areas of light snow at times, the offsetting effect of
   low-level warm advection suggests that light freezing rain will
   remain at least a part of the mix through the afternoon, as repeated
   rounds of precipitation spread northeastward across the area. 
   Accumulations of ice may exceed rates .05" in three hours locally,
   particularly over higher terrain areas of south central and
   southeast Missouri.

   ..Goss.. 01/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38399099 38199001 37788948 37098971 36749026 36229195
               36219268 36689324 37179311 38029240 38399099 

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