Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 15
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 15 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0015
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

   Areas affected...Central/Northeast KS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 111020Z - 111415Z

   SUMMARY...A transition from rain to sleet/freezing rain to snow is
   anticipated across much of the region over the next several hours.
   Periodic heavy snow with snowfall rates around 1"/hr are possible
   after transition to all snow occurs.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 20 miles
   north of STJ (in far northwest MO) with a strong cold front
   extending southwestward from the low across southeast KS to another
   low in northwest OK. Strong low-level frontogenesis is contributing
   to a broad area of precipitation over much of western and central
   KS. Much of the precipitation over central KS is currently rain, but
   strong low-level cold advection is expected to quickly cool the
   850mb to surface layer. As this occurs, a transition to more mixed
   precipitation, likely predominately sleet, is anticipated. This
   mixed precipitation phase is not expected to last long (i.e. less
   than 2 hours) as continued cold advection results in an eventual
   transition to snow. After the transition to snow occurs, periodic
   heavy snowfall (i.e. up to 1"/hr) is possible as strengthening
   mid-level frontogenesis (attendant to the mid-level trough) augments

   ..Mosier.. 01/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37899998 38979915 39789773 39889554 39069553 37439770
               37029940 37169999 37899998 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: January 11, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities