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Mesoscale Discussion 16
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

   Areas affected...east-central MO into southwest IL

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 120015Z - 120415Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will continue to shift east across
   east-central MO and southwest IL. The greatest snowfall rates, near
   1 inch per hour, will continue for a few more hours this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has been falling into
   I-44/I-70/I-55 corridor near St. Louis the past few hours. Local
   storm reports from the St. Louis NWS office indicate 3-6 inches of
   snow has already fallen across much of east-central MO into
   west-central IL. Latest forecast guidance coupled with radar and
   satellite trends suggest moderate to heavy snow will continue and
   shift east across the region through about 02-03z.  The timing of
   the end of heavier snowfall is based on the track of the back edge
   of the current snow band across east-central MO. 

   Across central MO, an area of drier air has been noted in water
   vapor imagery and in lower reflectivity on radar. This is associated
   with weaker forcing for ascent ahead of the main mid/upper level
   trough over the central/southern Plains currently, and perhaps even
   some weak midlevel subsidence as the ridge axis shifts eastward from
   the Ozarks toward the MS River. As the trough continues to eject
   eastward, another burst of moderate to heavy snow is possible
   overnight (after 06z).

   ..Leitman.. 01/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   39289075 39318978 39158923 38848892 38608879 38218886
               37958919 37849008 37879100 38109174 38569196 38899179
               39139118 39289075 

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Page last modified: January 12, 2019
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