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Mesoscale Discussion 19
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0019
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southern Wisconsin...far northwest
   Illinois

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 102350Z - 110545Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all likely from eastern
   Iowa into southern Wisconsin this evening and tonight. Precipitation
   will diminish from southwest to northeast tonight/overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is ejecting out over the
   Plains with an associated surface front oriented southwest-northeast
   from central Oklahoma through Lower Michigan. Winter mixed
   precipitation continues across northern Missouri, southern/eastern
   Iowa and into southern Wisconsin. As the surface low tracks/develops
   east-northeast across the southern Plains and into Mississippi
   Valley, the surface front will slide south/east across southeast
   Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois. Along and behind
   the surface front, freezing rain/sleet are likely before
   transitioning to snow in a fairly narrow corridor.

   Strong isentropic ascent via warm air advection and low/mid-level
   frontogenesis will provide enough lifting for freezing rain rates to
   likely exceed 0.05 inches per 3 hours, and snowfall rates up to 1-2
   inches per hour across portions of this area. Sleet will also occur
   at the interface of the freezing rain/snow transition, which is
   already evident per dual-pol correlation coefficient values via KDMX
   and KDVN. Precipitation will continue through 06z, but will decrease
   from southwest to northeast across eastern Nebraska, northern
   Missouri, and southern/eastern Iowa.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41019194 40829255 41069297 41409316 41939318 42639228
               43299114 43808955 43898821 43778770 43298757 43088795
               42538899 42019011 41409114 41019194 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2020
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