Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southern Wisconsin...far northwest
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 102350Z - 110545Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC
SUMMARY...Freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all likely from eastern
Iowa into southern Wisconsin this evening and tonight. Precipitation
will diminish from southwest to northeast tonight/overnight.
DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is ejecting out over the
Plains with an associated surface front oriented southwest-northeast
from central Oklahoma through Lower Michigan. Winter mixed
precipitation continues across northern Missouri, southern/eastern
Iowa and into southern Wisconsin. As the surface low tracks/develops
east-northeast across the southern Plains and into Mississippi
Valley, the surface front will slide south/east across southeast
Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois. Along and behind
the surface front, freezing rain/sleet are likely before
transitioning to snow in a fairly narrow corridor.
Strong isentropic ascent via warm air advection and low/mid-level
frontogenesis will provide enough lifting for freezing rain rates to
likely exceed 0.05 inches per 3 hours, and snowfall rates up to 1-2
inches per hour across portions of this area. Sleet will also occur
at the interface of the freezing rain/snow transition, which is
already evident per dual-pol correlation coefficient values via KDMX
and KDVN. Precipitation will continue through 06z, but will decrease
from southwest to northeast across eastern Nebraska, northern
Missouri, and southern/eastern Iowa.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41019194 40829255 41069297 41409316 41939318 42639228
43299114 43808955 43898821 43778770 43298757 43088795
42538899 42019011 41409114 41019194