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Mesoscale Discussion 20
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0020
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...portions of south-central/southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...

   Valid 110030Z - 110230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms, including supercells, has
   developed along the dryline from south-central Texas down to Eagle
   Pass, TX. Large hail remains the main threat, although damaging
   winds and a tornado or two are also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are moving northeast but are remaining close to
   the dryline with steering flow mostly parallel to the boundary. Hail
   sizes of 0.5 - 1.25 inches have been reported. Large hail remains
   the primary threat given steep mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km and
   long hodographs with effective bulk shear of 50-70 knots. Storms
   will continue to develop and move northeast near the dryline for the
   next 1-2 hours, but will eventually coalesce into a line and move
   east-northeast as the upper-level trough ejects out over the Plains.
   A tornado or two is possible, especially with any discrete
   supercells, although a weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out when
   the squall line forms. Damaging winds are also possible both with
   discrete cells and after the line forms. The severe threat will
   continue through 0400 UTC across much of the watch, but the severe
   threat will diminish from west to east behind the line.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 01/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28720056 29669939 30389877 30879818 30909717 30829698
               30199699 29259727 28379913 28180023 28720056 

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Page last modified: January 11, 2020
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