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Mesoscale Discussion 39
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MD 39 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271616Z - 271815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief
   tornado will continue late this morning and potentially into this
   afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 16Z, a band of convection is ongoing from
   south-central GA into the FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico.
   The southern portion of this band has intensified over the last
   hour, as indicated cooling cloud tops noted in IR imagery and a
   recent increase in lightning activity.  The primary large-scale
   ascent remains displaced well to the northwest across the mid-MS
   Valley in association with a shortwave midlevel trough, but weak
   low-level warm advection will continue to focus convection near and
   south of a weak surface boundary across northern FL/far southern GA.
   While low-level flow is relatively weak and veered along/south of
   the boundary, effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support
   at least transient organization with the strongest storms, with a
   primary threat of isolated damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
   tornado. 

   The main limiting factor for the severe threat will continue to be
   weak instability. The greatest relative threat may in the next 1-2
   hours over the FL Panhandle, where MLCAPE is as high as 500 J/kg per
   recent mesoanalyses. Widespread cloudiness downstream into the
   northern FL Peninsula and far southern GA will continue to limit
   destabilization, and the longevity of the severe threat into this
   afternoon remains uncertain. As a result, watch issuance remains
   unlikely.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 01/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30058560 30718462 31118392 31258296 31178271 30848254
               30508300 30088385 29878433 29618490 29708538 29918553
               30058560 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2021
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