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Mesoscale Discussion 40
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

   Areas of coastal central California

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100755Z - 101200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms will affect parts of the central
   California Coast early this morning. Strong wind gusts may occur.

   DISCUSSION...Strong cooling aloft will continue to overspread much
   of northern CA this morning, coincident with the left-exit region of
   the cyclonically curved midlevel jet. At the surface, low pressure
   is forecast to pivot northeastward just offshore the Eureka area,
   with increasing convergence extending south along a cold front. Lift
   along the front as well as cooling profiles aloft will yield a few
   hundred J/kg SBCAPE along the coast after about 10Z, though the
   better low-level moisture plume will remain well south of the
   region. Low-level winds will veer with time, reducing SRH as the
   front approaches, but 50+ kt speeds 200-300 meters above the ground
   suggest strong/enhanced wind gusts could occur with the stronger
   downdrafts. Small/sub-severe hail cannot be ruled out within the
   stronger cores given cellular storm mode.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/10/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36052139 35882152 36202191 36552206 37112243 37392251
               37582260 37802261 37932298 38022310 38242306 38462328
               38802369 38992327 38562268 37652206 36822160 36362132

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