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Mesoscale Discussion 41
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MD 41 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

   Areas affected...southeast Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221948Z - 222215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may pose some risk for locally strong wind gusts
   and perhaps a brief tornado over southeast Alabama next few hours.
   Threat appears too marginal for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with embedded circulations and
   bowing segments has recently intensified over south-central AL.
   Activity is forming within corridor of ascent along southern
   extension of warm conveyor belt. Storms are approaching a minimum in
   boundary-layer moisture with surface dewpoints around 56 F, and some
   temporary weakening might occur as a result. However, low-level
   theta-e advection should contribute to dewpoints rising to near 60F
   across southeast AL next couple hours, and this should help to
   sustain surface-based storms next few hours. Effective-bulk shear
   around 40 kt and 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 200-300 m2/s2
   is more than sufficient for transient embedded circulations and
   bowing segments, but the weak thermodynamic environment is expected
   to remain the primary limiting factor for a more robust severe

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 01/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31498690 32078664 32368623 32428566 32068523 31518565
               31278665 31498690 

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