|Mesoscale Discussion 41|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018
Areas affected...southeast Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221948Z - 222215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may pose some risk for locally strong wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado over southeast Alabama next few hours.
Threat appears too marginal for a WW.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with embedded circulations and
bowing segments has recently intensified over south-central AL.
Activity is forming within corridor of ascent along southern
extension of warm conveyor belt. Storms are approaching a minimum in
boundary-layer moisture with surface dewpoints around 56 F, and some
temporary weakening might occur as a result. However, low-level
theta-e advection should contribute to dewpoints rising to near 60F
across southeast AL next couple hours, and this should help to
sustain surface-based storms next few hours. Effective-bulk shear
around 40 kt and 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 200-300 m2/s2
is more than sufficient for transient embedded circulations and
bowing segments, but the weak thermodynamic environment is expected
to remain the primary limiting factor for a more robust severe
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31498690 32078664 32368623 32428566 32068523 31518565
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