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Mesoscale Discussion 41
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

   Areas affected...portions of far western New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 202239Z - 210245Z

   SUMMARY...Instances of heavy lake-effect snow should continue
   through the evening, with 2 inch/hour snowfall rates possible,
   especially over Erie County, New York.

   DISCUSSION...Deep-layer flow (especially closer to the surface) has
   become more aligned with the long axis of Lake Erie over the past
   couple of hours given the passing of a weak surface trough. The long
   fetch of appreciable low-level moisture off of the lake waters will
   support lake effect snow into the evening hours. 6-7 C/km low-level
   lapse rates (evident via 22Z mesoanalysis) will support continued
   heavier snowfall (as was recently observed at the DKK ASOS), with
   snowfall rates potentially approaching 2 inches/hour at times.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42667911 42767897 42817890 42907887 42927861 42777847
               42617851 42527878 42517889 42577899 42667911 

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