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Mesoscale Discussion 44
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0044
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

   Areas affected...central KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230106Z - 230130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped mini supercell structures will likely be
   short-lived across central KY.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLVX and KOHX shows several weakly
   rotating marginal supercells across central KY as of 0045-0100Z. 
   The 00Z BNA raob sampled what is likely a regionally greatest
   corridor of instability with MLCAPE around 400 J/kg and a lowest 100
   mb mean mixing ratio around 9 g/kg.  The long and curved low-level
   hodograph is favoring quasi-discrete storms but the overall weak
   buoyancy coupled with the loss of heating will likely limit overall
   thunderstorm intensity and any low risk for localized severe. 
   Nonetheless, will continue to monitor thunderstorm development
   before this activity moves to the east/northeast of the
   instability/moisture axis as it moves from the I-65 to I-75 corridor
   during the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/23/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36758572 36898618 37588629 39018492 38858432 38238413
               36998501 36758572 

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