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Mesoscale Discussion 50
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

   Areas affected...north FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010312Z - 010515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop
   with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line
   segment moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern
   part of the FL Peninsula.  Surface analysis indicates temperatures
   will likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the
   lower 60s F ahead of the line segment.  Recent radar trends have
   shown a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms
   gradually organizes.  The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs
   showed a deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak
   inversion was noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the
   Jacksonville raob.  Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain
   modest with 500 J/kg MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL.  It
   is possible a slow but slight intensification of the line segment
   will occur over the next 1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over
   the central Gulf Coast approaches the region.  It is unclear whether
   a threat for damaging gusts will develop but the environment will
   conditionally support a risk dependent on storm-scale processes. 
   The overall severe risk appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a
   severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 02/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289 

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Page last modified: February 01, 2021
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