|Mesoscale Discussion 50|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021
Areas affected...north FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010312Z - 010515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop
with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line
segment moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern
part of the FL Peninsula. Surface analysis indicates temperatures
will likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the
lower 60s F ahead of the line segment. Recent radar trends have
shown a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms
gradually organizes. The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs
showed a deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak
inversion was noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the
Jacksonville raob. Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain
modest with 500 J/kg MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL. It
is possible a slow but slight intensification of the line segment
will occur over the next 1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over
the central Gulf Coast approaches the region. It is unclear whether
a threat for damaging gusts will develop but the environment will
conditionally support a risk dependent on storm-scale processes.
The overall severe risk appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a
severe thunderstorm watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289
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