|Mesoscale Discussion 59|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021
Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...
Valid 070041Z - 070245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww005.
DISCUSSION...Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak
disturbance may be influencing deep convection that has migrated
across the northern portions of FL over the last few hours. An
expansive cluster of thunderstorms is moving off the northern FL
Atlantic Coast with trailing convection, and scattered supercells,
extending west-southwest north of the surface front. A secondary
surface wave appears to be forming over the northern Gulf Basin
ahead of the primary short-wave trough. This is likely the back edge
of the severe threat which will shift toward the FL Gulf Coast later
this evening. Much of the convection across the tornado watch is
likely elevated with surface dew points only in the lower 60s. 00z
sounding from TBW suggests upper 60s-70F dew points are needed for
surface-based convection. If this air mass can advance north across
ww005, ahead of the trailing surface wave, there may be an increase
in near-surface based convection/supercells after 03-04z.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29828340 30178051 28588051 28238339 29828340
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