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Mesoscale Discussion 59
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

   Valid 070041Z - 070245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww005.

   DISCUSSION...Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests a weak
   disturbance may be influencing deep convection that has migrated
   across the northern portions of FL over the last few hours. An
   expansive cluster of thunderstorms is moving off the northern FL
   Atlantic Coast with trailing convection, and scattered supercells,
   extending west-southwest north of the surface front. A secondary
   surface wave appears to be forming over the northern Gulf Basin
   ahead of the primary short-wave trough. This is likely the back edge
   of the severe threat which will shift toward the FL Gulf Coast later
   this evening. Much of the convection across the tornado watch is
   likely elevated with surface dew points only in the lower 60s. 00z
   sounding from TBW suggests upper 60s-70F dew points are needed for
   surface-based convection. If this air mass can advance north across
   ww005, ahead of the trailing surface wave, there may be an increase
   in near-surface based convection/supercells after 03-04z.

   ..Darrow.. 02/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29828340 30178051 28588051 28238339 29828340 

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Page last modified: February 07, 2021
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