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Mesoscale Discussion 64
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0832 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

   Areas affected...North-central/east-central North Dakota

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 140232Z - 140730Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1" per hour are expected to spread
   south-southeastward across north-central and east-central North
   Dakota late this evening into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop over the north-central U.S. reveals
   increasing bands of snowfall from the southern Canadian Prairie
   south-southeastward across the central third of North Dakota.  The
   snowfall is occurring in an area of weak QG-forced ascent --
   particularly evident within 700mb temperature advection fields from
   the latest runs of the NAM and RAP.  This is occurring downstream of
   a subtle western Canada mid-level short-wave trough, which will
   undergo gradual amplification as it digs southeastward toward/into
   the north-central U.S. tonight.  Given favorably cold/saturated
   profiles in model point-forecast soundings across the area, and
   persistent/moderate ascent, expect snowfall rates to reach/possibly
   exceed 1" per hour within heavier bands after 10PM CST as the
   heaviest snowfall spreads south-southeastward across north-central
   North Dakota.

   ..Goss.. 01/14/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48919950 47909808 46579828 46319906 46970016 48320172
               48930195 49010089 48919950 

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