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Mesoscale Discussion 71
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MD 71 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0071
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0410 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN...southern KY...far
   southwest VA...far western NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 062210Z - 070015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the
   early evening, including the potential for a couple of supercells
   with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or
   two.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively strong diurnal heating occurred this
   afternoon from northeast TN into southeast KY, with greater
   cloudiness and weaker heating noted across the rest of TN.
   Seasonably rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around
   500-1000 J/kg near and south of a surface front extending from
   southeast KY into northwest TN, and area VWPs continue to depict
   strong deep-layer flow/shear that is conditionally favorable for
   organized convection. 

   Thus far this afternoon, robust convection has mostly been confined
   to areas north of the boundary, aided by modest low-level warm
   advection, though a couple stronger cells have recently developed
   across far southeast KY, while another cell is gradually becoming
   better organized east of Clarksville, TN. Coverage of storms into
   the early evening remains uncertain, with stronger frontal
   convergence expected across western TN (where cloudiness has
   persisted), and more nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the
   short-term across southeast KY and eastern TN, where stronger
   heating occurred. However, with time, a couple of supercells and/or
   stronger clusters could develop and spread eastward into the early
   evening. Should this occur, a threat for locally damaging wind and
   hail could evolve with time. Also, while low-level flow is rather
   modest and veered across the warm sector, low-level shear/SRH is
   sufficient to support some tornado threat, especially if any
   right-moving supercells can be sustained into the early evening. 

   While coverage and magnitude of the threat remain somewhat
   uncertain, watch issuance remains possible if an increase in
   organized convection appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 02/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   MEG...

   LAT...LON   36578730 36838639 37058540 37288382 37378194 37108145
               36528154 35888225 35518307 35448376 35458472 35618597
               35698676 35818739 35898781 36198798 36578730 

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Page last modified: February 08, 2025
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