Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

   Areas affected...northeast Louisiana...east Arkansas...west/north
   Mississippi...and far southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 181830Z - 182000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The ongoing severe weather threat is expected to continue
   eastward this afternoon. Downstream watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection with embedded supercell
   structures is ongoing across WW 24. These storms are evolving in an
   environment broadly characterized by modest MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg)
   and favorable bulk shear (50-60 kts). A steadily clearing boundary
   layer ahead of the convection has yielded gradual warming, with
   surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s F across the region. This
   has steepened 0-3-km lapse rates slightly, which have increased to
   around 6 C/km per recent 17z/18z special soundings at SHV and JAN,
   respectively. Amidst broader moist advection, some boundary-layer
   mixing is evident in northeast Louisiana and west Mississippi with
   dewpoints dropping slightly to the low 60s F. This environmental
   evolution (along with ongoing convective patterns) is expected to
   yield continued, gradual upscale growth as the system progresses
   eastward. The primary threats should include a few tornadoes and
   isolated damaging wind gusts, mainly associated with any embedded
   supercells and/or more intense mesovortices within the broader
   convective line.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason/Grams.. 01/18/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34228948 33228995 32029087 31539164 31509250 31639290
               31999272 32339244 32849216 33279197 33389147 33769119
               34309094 34919100 35369087 35518983 35208938 34228948