|Mesoscale Discussion 74|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018
Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma northeast across
parts of central and eastern Kansas
Valid 201021Z - 201315Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to continue to increase across
the discussion area over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest composite radar loop shows thunderstorms
blossoming across northwest Oklahoma, in line with output from
several CAMs over the past couple of hours. With the forecast
development now materializing, confidence has increased that an area
of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain will spread
northeast across south central and then into eastern Kansas over the
next few hours. The precipitation seems to be developing in
response to frontogenetic tightening of the frontal gradient, and
with some of this rainfall spreading atop surface temperatures in
the upper 20s to low 30s, ice accumulation -- especially on
exposed/elevated surfaces -- can be expected.
Northward/northeastward extent of the risk remains somewhat in
question, as models differ as to exact location of heaviest
precipitation, and thus the discussion area will not include the
Topeka and Kansas City areas due to the uncertainty.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38829553 38559541 38009667 37559718 36749788 36229909
36249958 37049888 38389801 39029660 39019607 38829553
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