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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0074
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

   Areas of far southeast Texas...Louisiana...western
   Mississippi...and southeastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...25...

   Valid 182131Z - 182300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24, 25 continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to produce a
   threat for a couple of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and small
   hail. A local extension of WW 24 is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Broken line segments and transient supercells continue
   to move eastward across WW 24/25 just ahead of a cold front. So far,
   attempts at mature, upscale cold pool growth have been somewhat
   limited, perhaps due to relatively warm temperatures aloft (e.g., 7
   C at 700 mb per current RAP profiles). As such, most severe hazards
   (primarily damaging wind gusts) have been associated with
   quasi-steady supercells and/or portions of the broader broken line
   into which supercells have merged. While the convective pattern
   continues to gradually trend towards a semi-continuous line, a few
   quasi-discrete structures persist in Louisiana and far east Texas.
   These storms are moving into a region slightly supportive of further
   intensification (e.g., STP around 1 in northern and central
   Louisiana); this includes a favorable kinematic environment amidst a
   less-supportive thermodynamic profile hampered by the aforementioned
   warm air aloft. As a result, some general intensification of these
   storms is possible and would result in a continued threat for
   damaging wind gusts, small hail, and perhaps a tornado or two in the
   short term. A couple of these cells are currently forming in western
   Louisiana and east Texas and might warrant a local extension of WW
   24. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts should be the predominant hazard
   as convective trends continue toward a more linear system.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 01/18/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33939141 34139090 33929031 33469020 32869060 32099123
               31519171 31169204 30739249 30499293 30309339 30389391
               30899393 31519331 31769306 31919290 32349239 32999195
               33459164 33939141 

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