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Mesoscale Discussion 74
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0074
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0421 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma northeast across
   parts of central and eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 201021Z - 201315Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to continue to increase across
   the discussion area over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest composite radar loop shows thunderstorms
   blossoming across northwest Oklahoma, in line with output from
   several CAMs over the past couple of hours.  With the forecast
   development now materializing, confidence has increased that an area
   of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain will spread
   northeast across south central and then into eastern Kansas over the
   next few hours.  The precipitation seems to be developing in
   response to frontogenetic tightening of the frontal gradient, and
   with some of this rainfall spreading atop surface temperatures in
   the upper 20s to low 30s, ice accumulation -- especially on
   exposed/elevated surfaces -- can be expected.

   Northward/northeastward extent of the risk remains somewhat in
   question, as models differ as to exact location of heaviest
   precipitation, and thus the discussion area will not include the
   Topeka and Kansas City areas due to the uncertainty.

   ..Goss.. 02/20/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38829553 38559541 38009667 37559718 36749788 36229909
               36249958 37049888 38389801 39029660 39019607 38829553 

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