Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023
Areas affected...parts of far southeast Texas...Louisiana...western
Mississippi...and southeastern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...25...
Valid 182131Z - 182300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24, 25 continues.
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to produce a
threat for a couple of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and small
hail. A local extension of WW 24 is possible.
DISCUSSION...Broken line segments and transient supercells continue
to move eastward across WW 24/25 just ahead of a cold front. So far,
attempts at mature, upscale cold pool growth have been somewhat
limited, perhaps due to relatively warm temperatures aloft (e.g., 7
C at 700 mb per current RAP profiles). As such, most severe hazards
(primarily damaging wind gusts) have been associated with
quasi-steady supercells and/or portions of the broader broken line
into which supercells have merged. While the convective pattern
continues to gradually trend towards a semi-continuous line, a few
quasi-discrete structures persist in Louisiana and far east Texas.
These storms are moving into a region slightly supportive of further
intensification (e.g., STP around 1 in northern and central
Louisiana); this includes a favorable kinematic environment amidst a
less-supportive thermodynamic profile hampered by the aforementioned
warm air aloft. As a result, some general intensification of these
storms is possible and would result in a continued threat for
damaging wind gusts, small hail, and perhaps a tornado or two in the
short term. A couple of these cells are currently forming in western
Louisiana and east Texas and might warrant a local extension of WW
24. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts should be the predominant hazard
as convective trends continue toward a more linear system.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33939141 34139090 33929031 33469020 32869060 32099123
31519171 31169204 30739249 30499293 30309339 30389391
30899393 31519331 31769306 31919290 32349239 32999195