Mesoscale Discussion 0075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

   Areas affected...Much of interior Maine

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 161849Z - 162245Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour are
   increasingly likely by 4-7 PM EST, and probably will linger further
   into the evening, before spreading to the northeast of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave impulse turning 
   northeastward through the lower Great Lakes region, cyclogenesis is
   underway along a surface frontal zone near the northern Mid Atlantic
   through southern New England coast vicinity.  Associated large-scale
   ascent is contributing to an expanding and intensifying
   precipitation shield beneath cooling cloud tops inland of coastal
   areas.

   It appears that this will continue while overspreading the remainder
   of northern New England through the balance of the afternoon, in
   response to further strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric warm
   advection and forcing for upward vertical motion.  A general
   consensus of latest model output indicates a more rapid deepening of
   the surface cyclone will commence by 21-00Z, largely offshore,
   across and northeast of the Cape Cod vicinity by 21-00Z.

   Across the coastal plain into higher terrain of Maine, deep-layer
   lift, becoming maximized within the mid-level layer favorably cold
   for large dendritic ice crystal growth, is forecast to become
   increasingly conducive to heavy snow rates around or above 1 inch
   per hour by 21-22Z, if not earlier.  This will be aided by cold
   thermodynamic profiles entirely below freezing, and supportive of
   moderately large snow to liquid water equivalent ratios, as
   low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic contributes to
   increasing precipitable water content (.4 to .6 inches).  

   Strengthening frontogentic forcing may contribute to bands of
   heavier snow rates approaching 2 inches per hour, with the heavy
   snow lingering through mid to late evening before diminishing and/or
   spreading with the large-scale ascent northeast of the region.

   ..Kerr.. 01/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   45666715 44236966 43657102 44227114 45277053 46276909
               46776794 45666715