Mesoscale Discussion 0075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

   Areas affected...Southwest Tennessee...Mississippi...Northeast
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

   Valid 182347Z - 190145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat including a potential for wind damage and
   a brief tornado will likely continue for a few more hours this
   evening. WW issuance appears unlikely to the east of the current
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...The WSR-88D from Little Rock shows a large area of
   thunderstorms, with a few embedded strong storms from northeast
   Louisiana extending north-northeastward across eastern Arkansas. RAP
   analysis shows weak instability located ahead of the line, where
   MLCAPE is estimated between 500 and 1000 J/kg. The line is being
   supported by a subtle shortwave trough moving through the lower
   Mississippi Valley. The associated mid-level jet is located in the
   southern Plains with the eastern edge of this jet moving through the
   lower Mississippi Valley, where the jet is enhancing deep-layer
   shear. This combined with large-scale ascent and instability  should
   continue to be sufficient to continue the isolated severe threat
   this evening. Cells on the eastern edge of this large area of
   convection with access to the stronger instability could become
   severe. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although a tornado
   will also be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 01/18/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34778891 35258905 35328950 34929005 33329096 32229167
               31779191 31589190 31469177 31389123 31809043 33468939
               34778891