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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Oklahoma...southern/eastern
   Kansas...and western Missouri

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 070151Z - 070745Z

   SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will develop across portions of
   northern Oklahoma, southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri
   tonight. Heavy freezing rain/sleet are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is moving onto the Plains
   this evening and a strengthening low-level jet is increasing
   warm-air advection above a cold air mass across Kansas/Oklahoma. A
   couple of elevated multi-cellular convective clusters are moving
   along the northern edge of the low-level jet/warm-air advection.
   Mid-level lapse rates are steepening as cold air aloft spreads
   eastward, which will increase coverage of storms/showers in the next
   couple of hours across portions of northern Oklahoma,
   southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri. The warm-nose should
   remain in place tonight within the MCD area at 850-700 mb with below
   freezing surface temperatures resulting in freezing rain and sleet.
   MUCAPE of 250-1000 J/kg and mixed-phase clouds should result in CG
   lightning and could produce locally heavy freezing rain/sleet.
   Generally, precipitation rates will be 0.05-0.15" per hour with
   widespread ice accumulation expected. In areas with stronger surface
   winds, ice accretion will be more efficient and sleet accumulation
   is also possible within convective bands/showers.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36889576 36729640 36559698 36309778 36239828 36179871
               36259904 36469929 36779937 37079938 37289936 37759901
               38729772 39409672 39959585 40029518 39979472 39739418
               39399362 39059332 38739318 38399326 38039369 37979382
               37619430 37329469 37129505 37029535 36889576 

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