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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Oklahoma...southern/eastern
   Kansas...and western Missouri

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 070151Z - 070745Z

   SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will develop across portions of
   northern Oklahoma, southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri
   tonight. Heavy freezing rain/sleet are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is moving onto the Plains
   this evening and a strengthening low-level jet is increasing
   warm-air advection above a cold air mass across Kansas/Oklahoma. A
   couple of elevated multi-cellular convective clusters are moving
   along the northern edge of the low-level jet/warm-air advection.
   Mid-level lapse rates are steepening as cold air aloft spreads
   eastward, which will increase coverage of storms/showers in the next
   couple of hours across portions of northern Oklahoma,
   southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri. The warm-nose should
   remain in place tonight within the MCD area at 850-700 mb with below
   freezing surface temperatures resulting in freezing rain and sleet.
   MUCAPE of 250-1000 J/kg and mixed-phase clouds should result in CG
   lightning and could produce locally heavy freezing rain/sleet.
   Generally, precipitation rates will be 0.05-0.15" per hour with
   widespread ice accumulation expected. In areas with stronger surface
   winds, ice accretion will be more efficient and sleet accumulation
   is also possible within convective bands/showers.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36889576 36729640 36559698 36309778 36239828 36179871
               36259904 36469929 36779937 37079938 37289936 37759901
               38729772 39409672 39959585 40029518 39979472 39739418
               39399362 39059332 38739318 38399326 38039369 37979382
               37619430 37329469 37129505 37029535 36889576 

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Page last modified: February 07, 2019
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