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Mesoscale Discussion 79
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

   Areas affected...far west Texas and southeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 141453Z - 142100Z

   SUMMARY...Several hours of heavy snow will shift southeastward
   across the discussion area through around 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent METAR observations indicate areas of heavy snow
   near the El Paso, Texas area and vicinity.  The precipitation in the
   area is likely being enhanced by strong lift associated with an
   upstream mid-level vorticity maximum amid steep (nearly 9 deg C/km)
   lapse rates aloft evident in the 12Z EPZ RAOB and point forecast
   soundings.  The convective nature of the precipitation will likely
   allow for areas of lightning flashes along with localized areas of
   1-2 inch-per-hour snowfall rates beneath heavier bands.  Orographic
   lift may also enhance snowfall rates locally.

   Latest guidance (including CAMs) indicate that the ongoing bands of
   heavy snow will gradually shift/develop southeastward along the Rio
   Grande Valley along and ahead of the path of the mid-level wave. 
   The expectation is that periodic heavy snow will reach the Marfa,
   Texas vicinity by around 19Z.  Snowfall should end from west to east
   beginning after around 19Z as well.

   ..Cook.. 02/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32410690 32930653 33090559 32680437 32000317 30730258
               29640303 29440418 30260514 31440650 31970679 32410690 

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Page last modified: February 14, 2021
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