|Mesoscale Discussion 80|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070306Z - 070500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible during the next few hours from
northeast OK/southeast KS into western MO.
DISCUSSION...In addition to the winter mixed precipitation discussed
in MCD 79, some threat for hail appears possible across portions of
northeast OK, southeast KS, and southwest MO. Convection continues
to develop within the strengthening warm-air advection across the
region. 00Z soundings at OUN and LMN show the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates a top the stable and cold low-level air mass.
Observed sounding at SGF also shows a steep mid-level lapse rate but
without the low-level moistening/warming. However, continued warm
advection into the region will likely promote the development of
similar thermodynamic profiles to those sampled at OUN and LMN.
Forecast soundings corroborate this expectation.
The resulting modest instability coupled with very strong vertical
shear results in the potential for isolated instances of hail, some
of which may reach 1" in diameter.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36949721 37519657 37899554 38139356 37659309 36999323
36689364 36429465 36019717 36949721
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