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Mesoscale Discussion 80
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 070306Z - 070500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible during the next few hours from
   northeast OK/southeast KS into western MO.

   DISCUSSION...In addition to the winter mixed precipitation discussed
   in MCD 79, some threat for hail appears possible across portions of
   northeast OK, southeast KS, and southwest MO. Convection continues
   to develop within the strengthening warm-air advection across the
   region. 00Z soundings at OUN and LMN show the presence of steep
   mid-level lapse rates a top the stable and cold low-level air mass.
   Observed sounding at SGF also shows a steep mid-level lapse rate but
   without the low-level moistening/warming. However, continued warm
   advection into the region will likely promote the development of
   similar thermodynamic profiles to those sampled at OUN and LMN.
   Forecast soundings corroborate this expectation.

   The resulting modest instability coupled with very strong vertical
   shear results in the potential for isolated instances of hail, some
   of which may reach 1" in diameter.

   ..Mosier/Elliott.. 02/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36949721 37519657 37899554 38139356 37659309 36999323
               36689364 36429465 36019717 36949721 

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Page last modified: February 07, 2019
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