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Mesoscale Discussion 80
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0080
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 162124Z - 170330Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed wintry precipitation has begun to transition to
   moderate snow across portions of eastern KY, southern OH and WV. An
   increase in heavy snow is expected late this afternoon and evening
   with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible.

   DISCUSSION...Moderate and heavy snow should continue to become more
   common this afternoon and evening across portions of the central
   Appalachians and Ohio Valley ahead of a potent upper low moving out
   of the southeast. Strong diffluence aloft overspreading the ongoing
   precipitation has resulted in increasing coverage and intensity with
   several reports of moderate snow appearing in eastern KY over the
   last hour. As large-scale ascent and strong mid-level warm advection
   continue to increase through this afternoon, precipitation rates
   should follow suit, increasing after 22z. It still may take several
   hours for the entirety of the precip to change over to snow given
   warm air trapped on the windward side of the Appalachians. However,
   dynamic cooling from increased precipitation rates and the loss of
   diurnal heating should accelerate the change over after dark.  

   Hi-res guidance is in strong agreement that band of moderate to
   heavy snow will likely take shape within the axis of deformation
   across eastern KY, western WV and eastern OH over the next couple of
   hours. This band will likely support snow rates of 1+ inches per
   hour through late afternoon and into this evening as it migrates
   north eventually reaching eastern OH and western PA. The corridor
   along the OH/PA border appears most likely to see the heaviest
   snowfall rates given the favorable overlap with strong isentropic
   ascent at the nose of the warm conveyor and enhanced deformation to
   the northwest of the upper low. Snow rates may briefly approach 2+
   inches per hour within this corridor, especially on the windward
   side of any locally higher terrain.

   ..Lyons.. 01/16/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37878392 38578369 40788189 41878067 41997998 41987963
               41907908 41547864 40767911 39707978 39138030 38738075
               38408113 37988171 37698224 37478281 37528357 37878392 

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