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Mesoscale Discussion 81
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0521 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern New York into the New England region

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 192321Z - 200145Z

   SUMMARY...Recent observations and numerical guidance suggest that a
   mix of wintry precipitation types will likely be maximized over the
   next 1-2 hours across eastern New York into parts of New England.
   This may result in light freezing rain accumulations for some
   locations.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations and MPING reports from across
   eastern NY into western MA indicate that a mixture of snow, rain,
   sleet, and freezing rain is ongoing. Correlation coefficient data
   from KTYX and KENX indicate that the warm nose sampled by the 21 UTC
   ALB sounding remains firmly in place between 4-8 kft, which is
   contributing to the wintry mix. This warm nose will persist for the
   next several hours as mid-level warm advection continues ahead of
   the approaching wave (currently over northeast IN/northwest OH).
   Isentropic ascent along the mid-level warm frontal zone will also
   maintain broad stratiform precipitation, which recent guidance
   suggests will increase in coverage/intensity over the next 1-2
   hours. This may result in areas of accumulating winter precipitation
   for locations with surface temperatures currently below freezing or
   that will fall below freezing in the coming hours via evaporative
   cooling near the surface. This includes the potential for freezing
   rain accumulations up to 0.1 inch and perhaps moderate snowfall
   rates per latest guidance.

   ..Moore.. 01/19/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   41537356 41877412 42897440 43337478 43747549 44037639
               44497642 45057531 45137434 45087341 44577283 43787191
               43077141 42557186 42127224 41717284 41537356 

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Page last modified: January 20, 2023
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