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Mesoscale Discussion 86
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Texas and into
   parts of southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221211Z - 221445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in convection -- including potential for
   marginally severe hail as well as local ice accumulation due to
   freezing rain -- is ongoing across portions of central and northern
   Texas.  WW is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in elevated showers
   and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of Texas -- particularly
   over the Hill Country and surrounding areas.  The storms are
   occurring as large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains
   in association with a short-wave trough moving northeastward across
   eastern New Mexico, and within a zone of ample (at least 1000 J/kg)
   CAPE, elevated atop a layer of near -- or below -- freezing
   temperatures.  

   Given the aforementioned characteristics of the thermodynamic
   profile, areas of ice accumulation will be possible with briefly
   heavy downpours.  Additionally, the degree of CAPE combined with
   background cloud-layer shear around 50 kt suggests that a few
   organized/possibly rotating storms will be possible, with local risk
   for marginally severe hail with the strongest cells.

   With time, expect this area of showers and storms to spread
   northeastward across north Texas and into Oklahoma, where the lack
   of better CAPE should mitigate any hail risk but where freezing rain
   -- and thus some ice accumulation -- will still be a concern.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 02/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34259638 32739734 31469777 31219902 30490029 31500073
               32420106 33620078 34560000 35039909 35249784 34909688
               34259638 

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Page last modified: February 22, 2018
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