Mesoscale Discussion 0086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

   Areas affected...Central/Southeast LA...Southwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241255Z - 241500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are
   possible for the next few hours across central and southeast
   Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a convective line
   from central MS southwestward into southwest LA. This line is moving
   slowly eastward, while cells within the line move quickly to the
   northeast. Line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical
   shear has resulted in a largely anafrontal/undercut storm character
   and limited severe potential thus far. This trend is expected to
   continue, particularly with the northern extent of the line across
   central and southwest MS where low-level stability and related
   convective inhibition exist. 

   Farther south (across central and eastern LA), ample low-level
   moisture has resulted in limited convective inhibition, but poor
   lapse rates are limiting buoyancy as well. Even so, a few stronger
   updrafts are possible as the line pushes eastward, particularly if
   favorable storm interactions/cell mergers occur. Primary severe
   threat is isolated, water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging
   gusts. Veering low-level winds also support a low-probability
   potential for a brief tornado with any warm sector updrafts that can
   deepen and mature.

   ..Mosier/Goss.. 01/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29699282 30489212 31609079 31658995 31158949 29699052
               29369121 29699282