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Mesoscale Discussion 88
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0088
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

   Areas affected...Far southeast MS/southwest AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242344Z - 250115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A transient supercell or two might briefly brush the
   coastal area of the Mississippi-Alabama border area over the next
   couple hours before subsiding, with a low probability for a
   brief/weak tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A transient supercell recently formed offshore to the
   east of St. Bernard Parish, LA within a confluent band of
   semi-discrete convection that trails to the south of longer-lived
   convection moving into central AL. An additional supercell may form
   to the south of this one, but the overall kinematic environment will
   slowly become less favorable for sustaining supercells later into
   the evening. During the next few hours, 0-1 km shear around 25 kts
   per the MOB VWP in conjunction with at least 68 F surface dew points
   will be required to conditionally support a brief weak tornado
   threat (EF0-EF1 with estimated winds around 65-95 mph). Latest RAP
   and HRRR suggest a shallow stable layer just above the surface will
   probably result in convection becoming quickly elevated inland.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 01/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29778905 30558917 30668875 30688828 30528810 30238821
               29938835 29598853 29458868 29328884 29468905 29778905 

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