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Mesoscale Discussion 88
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0088
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222310Z - 230115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado should
   continue for a couple more hours. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a QLCS has intensified over the
   past few hours across south-central GA. Current expectations are for
   this line to progress eastward across the remainder of
   southeastern/coastal GA this evening before moving offshore. One
   embedded low-level circulation has already produced a tornado in
   south-central GA around 2220Z. A narrow zone of favorable low-level
   moisture, weak boundary-layer instability, and sufficient 0-3 km
   shear is present ahead of the ongoing activity. This should support
   a continued threat for occasional circulations embedded within the
   line and perhaps a tornado. Isolated straight-line damaging winds
   may occur as well. The limited spatial and temporal extent of the
   severe threat both suggest that watch issuance will probably not be
   needed, as convection should tend to weaken later this evening as it
   moves eastward into a less favorable thermodynamic environment.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 01/22/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31218293 31688283 32028255 32178204 32168146 32028111
               31858094 31658111 31388119 31048140 30828191 30718243
               30748289 31218293 

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