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Mesoscale Discussion 91
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast AR to Western KY/TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 242058Z - 242200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase across northeast AR into
   western KY/TN into the early evening hours. Tornado watch will
   likely be issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...Surface low continues to track east-northeast across
   northern AR along a slowly advancing warm front that currently is
   draped from western KY into northern AR north of BVX. 20z sounding
   from LZK exhibits a very moist and adequately buoyant sounding for
   robust deep convection, with very strong shear, supportive of
   supercells and organized line segments. This environment is
   gradually spreading northeast and supercell/tornado threat should
   increase toward the confluence of the MS/OH River region over the
   next several hours. Tornado watch appears warranted for this
   evolution and will likely be issued soon.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 02/24/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36549111 37228946 37568747 36328741 35519055 36549111 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2018
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