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Mesoscale Discussion 91
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0814 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

   Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 240214Z - 240615Z

   SUMMARY...A broad area of mixed precipitation is developing in
   eastern NM. Snowfall rates exceeding 1"/hr are possible in the next
   few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broadening precipitation field is developing in
   eastern NM in advance of a cut-off mid-level low currently centered
   over southeast AZ. This precipitation is associated with a subtle
   500-mb shortwave trough propagating through the broader low,
   yielding a local maxima in 700-mb frontogenesis and low-level
   ascent. Surface stations at lower elevations are currently reporting
   moderate rain with surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
   Conditions are expected to cool during the next couple of hours
   amidst broad upslope flow, yielding a gradual transition from rain
   to snow. Increased low-level forcing associated with the mid-level
   shortwave (and broader cut-off low) should also support a steady
   increase in precipitation rates. This evolution is supported by CAM
   guidance suggesting that 1"/hr snowfall rates could evolve within
   the next few hours, particularly from around 03-06z.

   ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33200577 34730566 35040496 34850404 34310362 33120358
               32730412 32580530 33200577 

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