Mesoscale Discussion 0092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...northern portions of the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 151947Z - 152145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds, and a tornado or two, is
increasing across northern Florida. A tornado watch may be needed
within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated storms increasing
across portion of northern Florida, with on cell over Putnam County
exhibiting updraft rotation. While lesser than areas farther west,
a weakly veering wind field with height is in place, which
strengthens to around 40 kt at mid levels. Despite the somewhat
lesser wind field, instability is much more substantial across this
region, with low 70s dewpoints supporting 1000 to 1500 J/kg
surface-based CAPE. As such, the increasing risk will likely
require tornado watch issuance within the hour.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29498383 30758355 30978166 29898071 29078109 28648217