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Mesoscale Discussion 92
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...northern portions of the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151947Z - 152145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds, and a tornado or two, is
   increasing across northern Florida.  A tornado watch may be needed
   within the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated storms increasing
   across portion of northern Florida, with on cell over Putnam County
   exhibiting updraft rotation.  While lesser than areas farther west,
   a weakly veering wind field with height is in place, which
   strengthens to around 40 kt at mid levels.  Despite the somewhat
   lesser wind field, instability is much more substantial across this
   region, with low 70s dewpoints supporting 1000 to 1500 J/kg
   surface-based CAPE.  As such, the increasing risk will likely
   require tornado watch issuance within the hour.

   ..Goss/Grams.. 02/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29498383 30758355 30978166 29898071 29078109 28648217
               28688278 29498383 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2021
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