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Mesoscale Discussion 93
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MD 93 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast...Far Southwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 241616Z - 241815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Environmental conditions along the middle/upper TX coast
   into southwest LA will support supercells capable of all severe
   hazards, including tornadoes, this afternoon. A Tornado Watch will
   be needed along the middle /upper TX coast to southwest LA within
   the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles
   northwest of NIR in northern Bea County TX. A warm front extends
   east-northeastward from this low through Galveston Bay and then off
   the far southeast TX coast. The air mass south of this warm front is
   characterized by temperatures in the low 70s/upper 60s and dewpoints
   in the mid/upper 60s. Expectation is for this front to gradually
   lift northward as the surface low transitions east-northeastward. As
   it does, modest surface-based buoyancy is anticipated across the
   middle and upper TX coast. 

   Robust low-level wind fields are also in place, with mesoanalysis
   estimating 50-60 kt at 850 mb from CRP vicinity northward into
   southeast TX. Southeasterly surface winds exist throughout the warm
   sector, resulting in strong low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD
   profiles from CRP and HGX sampled 300 m2/s2 and 800 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
   storm-relative helicity. 

   Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated throughout the
   afternoon, and these environmental conditions are expected to
   support strong to severe thunderstorms. More linear development is
   anticipated along the front south of the low, but some potential for
   discrete warm-sector development exists as well. Any discrete storms
   would likely become supercellular with the potential for all severe
   hazards, including tornadoes. Given the strong low-level shear, a
   strong tornado is possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are
   also possible. As a result, a Tornado Watch will be needed along the
   middle/upper TX coast in far southwest LA.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28929736 29229714 29649635 30309499 30459453 30529392
               30519348 30389313 30069296 29839298 29799319 29769363
               29669407 29489449 28879542 28489623 28149689 28099718
               28229750 28519757 28929736 

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