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Mesoscale Discussion 94
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Oklahoma into
   northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 241708Z - 242315Z

   SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow should develop across
   portions of central Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas through the 
   afternoon. A couple of 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates are possible,
   resulting in periods of reduced visibility.

   DISCUSSION...Broad and deep moisture advection continues across the
   southern Plains as a strengthening mid-level trough and resultant
   height falls overspreads the region through the day. Currently,
   mostly rain is falling from central OK and points south and east.
   However, up to moderate snowfall rates have been reported across
   portions of the OKC metropolitan area into western Oklahoma over the
   past few hours. Furthermore, 16Z mesoanalysis shows 925 mb
   temperatures dropping to at/below freezing across central OK in
   tandem with recently reported snow. While surface temperatures are
   at/above freezing across central OK, the Oklahoma Mesonet shows a
   4-6 F temperature drop around and just south of the OKC metropolitan
   area over the last 3 hours. 

   With temperatures below freezing at/above 850 mb, the cooling
   surface-925 mb temperatures suggest that the rain-to-snow transition
   should continue across central OK and progress eastward to central
   AR by mid afternoon. Rich moisture advection and deep-layer ascent
   within the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -17C layer) may support at
   least brief bouts of 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates. Latest
   high-resolution guidance consensus indicates the best chance for 1+
   inch/hr snowfall rates will be around and just to the south and east
   of the OKC metropolitan area in the 18-22Z (Noon-4 PM CST) time
   frame, with the threat spreading into northwest AR during the 22-00Z
   (4-6 PM CST) period.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35259373 34559481 34059719 33919843 34069901 34299917
               34609890 35369777 35759715 36299523 36319417 36169303
               35589309 35259373 

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Page last modified: January 24, 2023
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