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Mesoscale Discussion 95
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...

   Valid 241850Z - 242045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.

   SUMMARY...Environment across the middle and upper TX coast remains
   favorable of supercells capable of tornadoes. In particular, a
   corridor of relatively higher tornado threat may exist from Wharton
   County into Fort Bend County for the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a surface low about 50
   miles north of VCT entering Colorado County TX. A warm front extends
   eastward from this low into Galveston Bay. Conditions south of this
   front are characterized by temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints
   in the upper 60s. Based on recent forecast soundings and
   mesoanalysis, these conditions appear to support surface-based
   buoyancy. Very strong wind fields remain in place, with surface wind
   gusts to 30 kt and the HGX VAD showing 70 kt at 1 km. STP is around
   3 for much of the warm sector. 

   As a result, the warm sector environment appears very supportive of
   supercells capable of tornadoes. Of particular interest currently is
   the storm entering western Wharton county, largely because of its
   location within the open warm sector and very favorable conditions
   downstream. As a result, the corridor from Wharton County into Fort
   Bend County may have a relatively higher threat for tornadoes over
   the next hour or two.

   ..Mosier.. 01/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29189670 29549638 29759560 29599513 29129526 28909563
               28779619 28919658 29189670 

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