|Mesoscale Discussion 95|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Areas affected...Middle/Upper TX Coast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...
Valid 241850Z - 242045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.
SUMMARY...Environment across the middle and upper TX coast remains
favorable of supercells capable of tornadoes. In particular, a
corridor of relatively higher tornado threat may exist from Wharton
County into Fort Bend County for the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a surface low about 50
miles north of VCT entering Colorado County TX. A warm front extends
eastward from this low into Galveston Bay. Conditions south of this
front are characterized by temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s. Based on recent forecast soundings and
mesoanalysis, these conditions appear to support surface-based
buoyancy. Very strong wind fields remain in place, with surface wind
gusts to 30 kt and the HGX VAD showing 70 kt at 1 km. STP is around
3 for much of the warm sector.
As a result, the warm sector environment appears very supportive of
supercells capable of tornadoes. Of particular interest currently is
the storm entering western Wharton county, largely because of its
location within the open warm sector and very favorable conditions
downstream. As a result, the corridor from Wharton County into Fort
Bend County may have a relatively higher threat for tornadoes over
the next hour or two.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29189670 29549638 29759560 29599513 29129526 28909563
28779619 28919658 29189670
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