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Mesoscale Discussion 97
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern IN...northwestern OH...and
   southern Lower MI

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 120740Z - 121345Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour
   ongoing across northern IN and northwestern OH should become common
   across parts of southern Lower MI through the morning. A wintry mix
   of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible on the northern
   extent of the precipitation.

   DISCUSSION...A synoptic-scale upper trough will continue moving
   northeastward across the Upper Midwest this morning. Strong warm air
   advection associated with a east-southeasterly low-level jet is
   supporting a broad precipitation shield across parts of the Upper
   Midwest into the lower Great Lakes as of 0730Z. Light to moderate
   freezing rain is already occurring across parts of northern IN and
   northwestern OH, and these areas will very likely experience a
   gradual south-to-north transition from freezing rain to rain over
   the next few hours as surface temperatures slowly climb above
   freezing.

   As the axis of the low-level jet shifts northeastward in tandem with
   the overall upper trough, a weak warm nose centered around 850 mb
   should also develop slowly northward across southern Lower MI
   through 13Z. Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour may
   become common where surface temperatures remain below 30F. This
   seems most likely in southern Lower MI, where wetbulb cooling of a
   drier low-level airmass should at least partially offset latent heat
   release as melted hydrometeors refreeze at the surface. Slightly
   cooler low-level temperatures on the northern extent of the
   precipitation shield suggest that a mix of snow and sleet may be
   more common.

   ..Gleason.. 02/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41558670 41768699 42168649 42558628 42858628 43298626
               43488566 43318403 43078281 42838243 42538264 42458282
               41498339 41228408 41238540 41558670 

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Page last modified: February 12, 2019
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