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Mesoscale Discussion 98
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0609 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...northern AR...eastern OK...and southern MO

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 250009Z - 250615Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates of 1"/hr or greater are possible in
   the next few hours as bands of winter precipitation move northward
   through the region.

   DISCUSSION...The ejection of a potent upper-level trough is underway
   in the southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this system has
   yielded a general winter-weather threat, mostly due to heavy snow,
   mainly centered in eastern OK into north-central AR. As the the
   system continues to propagate eastward, northeastward translation
   and further development of the winter precipitation is expected. The
   main driver is isentropic ascent north of a relatively sharp warm
   front draped across portions of south-central LA and southern MS.
   The rain-snow line is currently located far behind the front
   extending from southwest to northeast through central AR. Due to the
   overall evolution thus far and short-term guidance, the location of
   the rain-snow line is not expected to change very much during the
   next few hours.

   Within this timeframe, localized maxima in low-level frontogenesis
   (within the broad moist advection regime associated with isentropic
   ascent) are expected to yield bouts of higher snowfall rates (e.g.,
   1-1.5"/hr). The direct impacts to travel and roads may be tempered
   in areas that recently transitioned from rain to snow and were
   relatively warmer at the surface; however, reduced visibility is
   still possible, and quickly accumulating snow is likely in areas at
   slightly higher elevation. These bouts of locally higher snowfall
   rates are most likely just north of the rain-snow line across
   central and northern AR and will generally translate from west to
   east during the 00-03z timeframe. Later (03-06z), intermittent heavy
   snowfall rates will be possible to the northwest of the surface low
   as it propagates through the same general corridor.

   ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34379465 34589554 35269585 36169552 36649435 36919318
               37079173 37059009 36359001 35699080 35359143 34989237
               34579346 34379465 

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Page last modified: January 25, 2023
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