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Mesoscale Discussion 100
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

   Areas affected...central and north-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010043Z - 010145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Unless a noteworthy strengthening of thunderstorms occurs
   over the discussion area, a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of thunderstorms developing
   from near San Angelo northeastward to Gainesville.  Water-vapor
   imagery shows a potent shortwave trough over southwest NM and
   northern Mexico with this feature approaching the region this
   evening.  The leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent associated
   with the mid-level disturbance is moving into the Low Rolling Plains
   and Big Country regions---implied by the development of a rain
   shield across northwest TX.  

   The 00Z FWD RAOB exhibited modest lapse rates and around 700 J/kg
   MLCAPE.  The orientation of the developing thunderstorm activity is
   near the mean wind sampled by the sounding (240 degrees at 65 kt)
   and the strength of flow would favor rear to front (supercell)
   hydrometeor displacement.  However, there will be a tendency for
   cold pools to elongate from southwest to northeast and thereby
   partially limit upscale development into a convective system with
   more widespread gust potential.  Nonetheless, a couple of bowing
   segments may eventually develop as cores mature and strong gusts and
   localized marginally severe hail are anticipated to be the main
   threats.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32109927 32989781 33619703 33749556 33179507 32259590
               31599789 31039941 31440043 32109927 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2018
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