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Mesoscale Discussion 102
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

   Areas affected...northeast PA...northern NJ...central through
   eastern NY...western and northern CT...MA...VT and southern NH

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 122035Z - 130030Z

   SUMMARY...A large winter storm will continue to produce mostly
   freezing rain and sleet from northeast PA, northern NJ into south
   central NY through early evening. Mostly moderate to heavy snow from
   central through southeast NY into CT and southwest MA will
   transition to sleet and freezing rain during early evening. Moderate
   to heavy snow will expand northward from northeast NY and MA into VT
   and NH this evening. Localized snowfall rates up to and occasionally
   exceeding 1 inch per hour are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Band of moderate to heavy snow from eastern NY
   southeast through southern New England will continue to expand
   northward into VT and NH this evening. The low-level jet has
   strengthened to around 60 kt with strong veering/warm advection
   profiles indicated on VWP data over eastern NY. The northward
   migrating low-level jet interacting with an east-west oriented
   baroclinic zone, and associated with an increase in 800-700 mb layer
   frontogenetic forcing, will maintain deep ascent through the
   dendritic growth zone, supporting moderate to heavy snow. South of
   the snow band, warm advection along the low-level jet has resulted
   in northward progression of a melting layer aloft, where
   precipitation type has gradually changed to a mixture of freezing
   rain and sleet, especially from central PA into northern NJ. This
   transition zone will continue slowly northward into the evening.

   ..Dial.. 02/12/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   44877269 43387107 42217117 41677249 40817424 40337595
               40547741 41287853 42747822 43297643 44797500 44877269 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2019
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