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Mesoscale Discussion 103
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0103
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

   Areas of southwestern Alabama and the western
   Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...

   Valid 250807Z - 251000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential is maximized at this time within coastal
   counties near and east of Mobile Bay.

   DISCUSSION...Examination of radar data over the past hour continues
   to reveal small, rotating storms developing over the northern Gulf,
   to the east of the frontal convective band.  However, as these
   northeastward-moving cells move inland, only a very small warm
   sector is available, near and south of a warm front that currently
   extends from just north of Mobile Bay southeastward to near
   Valparaiso and then offshore.  

   Tornado potential remains confined to this warm sector, with updraft
   rotation quickly diminishing/dissipating with northeastward extent
   as cells cross the warm front and continue inland atop an
   increasingly stable boundary layer.  As such, tornado potential
   remains confined to coastal counties within the watch.  Within these
   counties, brief tornadoes remain possible.

   Little northward advance of the warm front is occurring, and thus
   risk currently remains contained within WW 29.  Will will continue
   to monitor evolution of surface conditions -- particularly any
   northward advance of the warm front inland/onshore east of the watch
   -- as it pertains to possible/future WW issuance.

   ..Goss.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29938804 30548781 30988752 30658652 30348607 29908622
               29868735 29938804 

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