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Mesoscale Discussion 107
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MD 107 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

   Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252324Z - 260030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move eastward through
   the region during the next few hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts
   and a couple of tornadoes are possible with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...A semi-continuous convective line with embedded
   supercell structures is moving eastward ahead of a cold front
   surging southward through north-central NC. The region ahead of the
   convection is characterized by a humid and sheared boundary layer.
   Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s F with dewpoints
   in the low to mid 60s F. 23z RAP forecast profiles in the region
   show an enlarged wind profile containing around 40 kts of 0-1
   southerly shear and 0-3-km SRH around 300+ J/kg. Some surface
   inhibition may exist (e.g., up to 50 J/kg SBCIN over the cooler
   near-shore waters) and temper the threat somewhat, but observed
   temperatures in some areas are 1-2 degrees F greater than forecast
   thermodynamic profiles. This environment is supportive of rotating
   updrafts (as evidenced by the numerous discrete supercells offshore)
   and associated hazards. The primary hazards would be isolated
   damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes if any embedded
   segments within the convective line continue to strengthen.

   ..Flournoy/Moore/Grams.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33107952 33917934 34667871 35497761 35977687 36097605
               35907532 35637515 35237522 35017539 34907577 34467625
               34347653 34387704 34047760 33737769 33647789 33547862
               33067897 33107952 

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