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Mesoscale Discussion 109
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

   Areas affected...portions of eastern NC and the Outer Banks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260228Z - 260430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance
   eastward through eastern NC toward the Outer Banks. Expected threats
   include isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...A quasi-linear convective system continues to move
   eastward ahead of a cold front draped through central NC. The
   environment ahead of the system is locally supportive of severe
   hazards and is characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s and
   temperatures in the upper 60s. The 00z MHX raob revealed a
   thermodynamic profile with 0-3-km lapse rates around 5 C/km and
   MLCAPE around 300 J/kg. The kinematic environment featured very
   strong low-level veering shear with 0-3-km SRH above 750 J/kg; the
   current KMHX VAD shows slightly more veered surface flow and lower,
   but still large, 0-3-km SRH around 450 J/kg. This could support
   local damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two with
   any quasi-sustained mesovortices, but the overall coverage of these
   hazards is expected to be low.

   To the east, a few discrete supercells are expected to continue
   propagating northeastward on the eastern edge of the forecast area.
   Due to the kinematic support, most of these storms have developed
   strong mesocyclones. However, they are largely forecast to remain
   offshore and any impacts to barrier islands should be somewhat
   tempered by the cooler coastal waters.

   ..Flournoy/Moore/Grams.. 01/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35017721 35457717 35787688 35937642 35807584 35617544
               35387517 35287516 34987528 34857569 34697589 34517611
               34467644 34577699 34867720 35017721 

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